PC Shipments Expected to Have Strong Second Half of 2012, Long-Term PC Growth Capped Within Single Digits, According to IDC

 Worldwide PC shipment growth for 2011 ended on a slightly positive note, growing to 1.8% on the year, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. While the first half of 2012 is expected to see only modest shipment growth, the launch of Windows 8 and the excitement generated by ultrabooks and other ultra-thin notebooks should drive second half sales in a much stronger way.

For much of 2011, vendors struggled to maintain consumer interest in a market beset by a tenuous economic recovery and disrupted by emerging computing devices. The lack of interest was evidenced by a lackluster Christmas season. Mature markets such as the United States and Western Europe, in particular, had a rough year, with PC shipments in 2011 shrinking by 9% compared to 2010.

Looking ahead, the PC market will still enjoy pockets of growth, particularly in emerging markets. IDC expects 2012 PC growth to be modest at just 5.0% for the year, with most of that growth occurring in the latter half of the year."Many consumers are holding off making PC purchases at the moment because tablet devices like Apple's iPad are proving to be a powerful distraction," according to Bob O'Donnell, vice president of Clients and Displays at IDC. "However, end user surveys tell us that few people consider media tablets as replacements for their PCs, so later this year when there is a new Microsoft operating system, available in sleek new PC form factors, we believe consumer interest in PCs will begin to rebound."

Although emerging markets have continued to show good uptake, IDC has slightly reduced its outlook in some regions. The 2012 forecast for China has been lowered to 9%, the first time single-digit growth has been forecast for a year. Part of the adjustment amongst emerging markets comes from the shortage of disk drives, which greatly impacts white box PC manufacturers who play a prevalent role in these markets. Secondly, the prospect of slowing exports will also likely affect PC spending as both consumers and SMBs in developing countries scale back.

"2012 and 2013 will bring significant challenges for Microsoft and the PC community," said Jay Chou, senior research analyst, Worldwide PC Tracker. "The Wintel platform must evolve to accommodate user expectations of ubiquitous computing on a multitude of devices and physical settings. Windows 8 and ultrabooks are a definitive step in the right direction to recapturing the relevance of the PC, but its promise of meshing a tablet experience in a PC body will likely entail a period of trial and error, thus the market will likely see modest growth in the near term."

PC Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2011-2016 (Shipments in millions)

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, February 2012
* Forecast data
See table notes below.

PC Shipment Growth by Region and Form Factor, 2011-2016

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, February 2012
* Forecast data

Table Notes: Mature Markets include the U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and Canada.
Emerging Markets include Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and Eastern Africa, Middle East, and Africa.

Taxonomy Note: PCs include Desktop, Mini Notebook and other Portable PCs, and do not include handhelds or Media Tablets such as the Apple iPad or Android Tablets
IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data. 

About IDC
IDC is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 48 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.