Worldwide shipments of traditional PCs (desktop and notebook) are forecast to total 303 million units in 2013, an 11.2% decline from 2012, and the PC market, including ultramobiles, is forecast to decline 8.4% in 2013. Mobile phone shipments are projected to grow 3.7%, with a volume of more than 1.8 billion units.

Tablet shipments are expected to grow 53.4%, with shipments reaching 184 million units. Premium tablets face continued price declines in the 7-inch form factor as a larger number of consumers prefer smaller form factors when it comes to content consumption.

"While consumers will be bombarded with ads for the new ultramobile devices, we expect their attention to be grabbed but not necessarily their money," said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner. "Continuing on the trend we saw last year, we expect this holiday season to be all about smaller tablets as even the long-term holiday favorite – the smartphone – loses its appeal.

"Although the preference is for dedicated devices, we see the opportunity for hybrid ultramobile to marry the functionality of a PC and the form factor of the tablet. Users that have to balance work and play will find that the advantage of buying and carrying one device outweighs the compromise in the full experience that single devices can deliver," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. "Users who are not limited by their disposable income will likely have a basic tablet as a companion device to their ultramobile on which most of their consumption activities will take place."

The mobile phone market will continue to experience steady growth, but the opportunity for high ASP smartphones is now ending. Growth is expected to come from mid-tier smartphones in mature markets and low-end Android smartphones in emerging markets.

Microsoft's acquisition of Nokia does not have a major impact on the forecast, because Gartner already assumed that Nokia would have accounted for the vast majority of Windows Phone share throughout the forecast, with only minimal volume coming from other OEMs, such as HTC or Samsung.

"Windows Phone challenges in the smartphone market remain the same, with the need to bring on board more developers and enrich the ecosystem, as well as turning the Windows Phone brand into a cool smartphone brand. While there are clear benefits to the acquisition, such as channel strength, carrier relationship and emerging-market knowledge, the brand and ecosystem do not directly benefit from it," said Milanesi.

The end of Windows XP support in 2014 is not expected to impact device sales, as 90% of large enterprises have either migrated or are migrating to Windows 7 or Windows 8.

Android will remain the leading device operating system (OS), as it is on pace to account for 38% of shipments in 2013. The Windows OS is projected to decline 4.3% in 2013 as a result of the decline in traditional PC sales, but will return to growth in 2014 with device OS shipments increasing 9.7%.

Top technology providers see wearable devices as an important market opportunity; however, Gartner expects that wearable devices will primarily remain a companion to mobile phones. Less than 1% of consumers will actually replace their mobile phones with a combination of a wearable device and a tablet by 2017.

"For wearables to be successful, they need to add to the user experience by complementing and enhancing what other devices already offer. They also need to be stylish yet practical, and most of all hit the right price," said Milanesi. "In the short term, we expect consumers to look at wearables as nice to have rather than a "must have," leaving smartphones to play the role of our faithful companion throughout the day."

Source: Gartner, compiled by Digitimes, October 2013

Source: Gartner, compiled by Digitimes, October 2013