Worldwide phablet shipments to surpass portable PCs in 2014 and tablets by 2015, says IDC

According to a new forecast from IDC, worldwide phablet shipments (smartphones with screen sizes from 5.5- to less than 7-inch) will reach 175 million units worldwide in 2014, passing the 170 million portable PCs expected to ship during the same period. In 2015, total phablet volumes will top 318 million units, surpassing the 233 million tablets forecast to ship in 2015.

While phablets are a relatively new category of device, first picking up volume in 2012, the pressure that the category has placed on the tablet market has already been clearly observed as the growth of smaller, 7-inch tablets has begun to slow. IDC said expects more consumers to shift back toward larger-sized tablets with their next purchase. However, that trend has not made up for the decreased shipments of smaller sizes, which has resulted in lower overall expectations for the tablet market in 2014 and beyond.

"With Apple expected to join the space in the coming weeks, we anticipate even more attention on phablets as larger screen smartphones become the new norm," said Melissa Chau, senior research manager with IDC. IDC added it expects phablets to grow from 14% of the worldwide smartphone market in 2014 to 32.2% in 2018.

As the smart connected device market matures, and emerging markets drive more of the growth, the percentage of the market made up of phablets plus regular smartphones is expected to increase. In 2014 IDC expects smartphones to represent about 70% of the total market. By 2018 that will grow to 75.6%. While consumers in places like the US and western Europe are likely to own a combination of PCs, tablets, and smartphones, in many places the smartphone – regardless of size – will be the one connected device of choice. Dropping ASPs for phablets and smartphones will help drive this trend. In 2013, a phablet cost an average of US$568 versus a regular smartphone at US$320, while IDC forecasts that in 2014, those prices will drop to US$397 and US$291, respectively.

"Clearly, mobile computing is a space where consumers are still trying to figure out what mix of devices and screen sizes will suit them best," said Tom Mainelli, program VP with IDC. "What works well today could very well shift tomorrow as phones gain larger screens, tablets become more powerful replacements for PCs, and even smart watch screens join the fray."

IDC: Worldwide smart connected device forecast shipments, 2014 (m units)
Category	2014 shipments	2014 market share	2014 Y/Y	2018 shipments	2018 market share	2018 Y/Y	5-year CAGR
Regular smartphone	1,077.4	60.2%	12.8%	1,246.2	51.2%	3.2%	5.5%
Phablet	174.9	9.8%	209.6%	592.9	24.4%	16.6%	60%
Tablet + 2-in-1	233.1	13%	6.5%	303.5	12.5%	4.7%	6.8%
Portable PC	170.0	9.5%	(4.7%)	170	7%	0.8%	(1%)
Desktop	133.5	7.5%	(2.3%)	121.1	5%	(1.6%)	(2.4%)
Total	1,789	100%	15.8%	2,433.7	100%	5.9%	9.5%

Source: IDC, compiled by Digitimes, September 2014.

Source: Digitimes

04 сентября 2014